Why is the sunrise problem a difficult problem?

The sunrise problem illustrates the difficulty of using probability theory when evaluating the plausibility of statements or beliefs. According to the Bayesian interpretation of probability, probability theory can be used to evaluate the plausibility of the statement, “The sun will rise tomorrow.”

When to use probability theory in the sunrise problem?

Why did the Sunshine Policy run into trouble?

It ran into trouble just two months into the Sunshine era, when South Korea requested the creation of a reunion center for divided families in exchange for fertilizer assistance; North Korea denounced this as horse trading and cut off talks.

Who was the founder of the sunrise problem?

Based on past observations, we can infer the parameters of this random process, and from there evaluate the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow. The sunrise problem was first introduced in the 18th century by Pierre-Simon Laplace, who treated it by means of his rule of succession.

Which is the correct answer to the sunrise problem?

Usually inferred from repeated observations: “The sun always rises in the east”. The sunrise problem can be expressed as follows: “What is the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow?” The sunrise problem illustrates the difficulty of using probability theory when evaluating the plausibility of statements or beliefs.

How to calculate the probability of a sunrise?

Let p be the long-run frequency of sunrises, i.e., the sun rises on 100 × p % of days. Prior to knowing of any sunrises, one is completely ignorant of the value of p. Laplace represented this prior ignorance by means of a uniform probability distribution on p. Thus the probability that p is between 20% and 50% is just 30%.